My 2014 Oscar Predictions (and WINNERS)!!!

Below are my Oscar predictions, in bold, and the winners, underlined.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Wolf of Wall Street
Her
Philomena
Nebraska
Gravity
Dallas Buyers Club
Captain Phillips

In my mind, there is no question here. 12 Years a Slave is above and beyond the best film, in every way. While Gravity is more of a technical achievement, 12 Years is a more complete film experience. It will be a close race, but hopefully the superior film will prevail.

Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Should win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Could win: Steve McQueen
Should win: Steve McQueen

Alfonso Cuarón has won practically all the precursor awards, so he seems like a lock to become the first Latino to win a Best Director Oscar. While his accomplishments with never-before-used technology in Gravity certainly are to be celebrated, I would give the award to Steve McQueen. He filmed 12 Years in 35 days with one camera. To me, that's pretty darn impressive. That he was able to create one of the best film's I've ever seen, in those conditions, is the mark of a truly gifted filmmaker.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: No one
Should win: Cate Blanchett (or Judi Dench)

Cate Blanchett was phenomenal in Blue Jasmine. She played an otherwise detestable character with such a perfect mix of madness and humor that she becomes a human as opposed to a caricature. You almost end up empathizing with her. Plus, she's just an extraordinary actress, and she's past due for a Best Actress Oscar. If there was less competition this year, I'd also love to see Judi Dench win. Her turn as a little Irish lady searching for her long-lost son in Philomena is one of the most moving, heartfelt performances I've seen in years. I wish they could give a statuette to both of them.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Matthew McConaughey seems like a safe bet to win his first Oscar for playing a pioneer in U.S. AIDS treatment. He lost over half of his body weight to play Ron Woodruff, and a transformation like that bodes well for his chances. However, as great as McConaughey was, this Oscar should go to Ejiofor for his utterly heartbreaking turn as a free black sold into slavery. He plays the dispair of his character so convincingly and with such poise that you just want to reach into the screen and hug him. If I could have my way, he'd be an Oscar winner tonight.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Will win: Lupita Nyong'o (hopefully!)
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o

This is the closest race in the major categories. It's a showdown between Lupita and Jennifer. Their roles could not be more different, but for me, there is a clear winner. In her first film role, Nyong'o gives a performance fitting of a seasoned veteran. Her performance as abused slave girl Patsey hits you like a ton of bricks. While Lawrence gives a fine performance as an unhappy housewife, it can't even compare. If there is any justice in the Academy, Lupita will win the Oscar. Unfortunately, though, these awards sometimes prove that this industry is a business, and sometimes the less deserving win because they generate millions of dollars (through X-Men and Hunger Games).

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Jared Leto
Could win: No one
Should Win: Abdi or Fassbender

Like his costar, Leto underwent a drastic transformation to portray a transgender AIDS patient, and that will most likely earn him his first Oscar. However, I feel like Leto is getting more recognition for the character he plays rather than how he plays her. So, if I picked the winners, I'd give the Oscar to either Abdi or Fassbender. Abdi, in his first-ever acting job, becomes a Somali pirate so expertly that you feel like he is this person he's playing. SImply amazing. Fassbender, on the other hand, plays a slave master so incredibly cruel and terrifying you just want to step into the film and kill him. When someone succeeds in being so repulsive, he should be rewarded with an Oscar.

The rest of the predicted winners are in BOLD.

Best Animated Feature

"The Croods"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Ernest & Celestine"
"Frozen"
"The Wind Rises"

Best Foreign Language Film

"The Broken Circle Breakdown" (Belgium)
"The Great Beauty" (Italy)
"The Hunt" (Denmark)
"The Missing Picture" (Cambodia)
"Omar" (Palestine)

Best Documentary

"The Act of Killing"
"Cutie & The Boxer"
"Dirty Wars"
"The Square"
"Twenty Feet From Stardom"

Best Original Screenplay

"American Hustle," written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
"Blue Jasmine," written by Woody Allen
"Dallas Buyers Club," written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
"Her," written by Spike Jonze
"Nebraska," written by Bob Nelson

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Before Midnight," written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
"Captain Phillips," screenplay by Billy Ray
"Philomena," screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
"12 Years A Slave," screenplay by John Ridley
"The Wolf of Wall Street," screenplay by Terence Winter

Best Original Score

"The Book Thief," John Williams
"Gravity," Steven Price
"Her," William Butler and Owen Pallett
"Philomena," Alexandre Desplat
"Saving Mr. Banks," Thomas Newman

Best Original Song

"Happy" from "Despicable Me 2," music and lyric by Pharrell Williams
"Let It Go" from "Frozen," music and lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"The Moon Song" from "Her," music by Karen O; lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
"Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom," music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; lyric by Paul Hewson

Best Editing

"American Hustle," Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
"Captain Phillips," Christopher Rouse
"Dallas Buyers Club," John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
"Gravity," Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
"12 Years A Slave," Joe Walker

Best Cinematography

"The Grandmaster," Philippe Le Sourd
"Gravity," Emmanuel Lubezki
"Inside Llewyn Davis," Bruno Delbonnel
"Nebraska," Phedon Papamichael
"Prisoners," Roger A. Deakins

Best Production Design

"American Hustle," Judy Becker (Production Design); Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)
"Gravity," Andy Nicholson (Production Design); Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (Set Decoration)
"The Great Gatsby," Catherine Martin (Production Design); Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration)
"Her," K.K. Barrett (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)
"12 Years A Slave," Adam Stockhausen (Production Design); Alice Baker (Set Decoration)

Best Costume Design

"American Hustle," Michael Wilkinson
"The Grandmaster," William Chang Suk Ping
"The Great Gatsby," Catherine Martin
"The Invisible Woman," Michael O'Connor
"12 Years A Slave," Patricia Norris

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"Dallas Buyers Club," Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
"Jackass: Bad Grandpa," Stephen Prouty
"The Lone Ranger," Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

Best Sound Editing

"All Is Lost," Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
"Captain Phillips," Oliver Tarney
"Gravity," Glenn Freemantle
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug," Brent Burge
"Lone Survivor," Wylie Stateman

Best Sound Mixing

"Captain Phillips," Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
"Gravity," Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug," Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
"Inside Llewyn Davis," Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
"Lone Survivor," Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Best Visual Effects

"Gravity," Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug," Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
"Iron Man 3," Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
"The Lone Ranger," Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
"Star Trek Into Darkness," Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

Best Live-Action Short

"Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)," Esteban Crespo
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)," Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
"Helium," Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson
"Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)," Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
"The Voorman Problem," Mark Gill and Baldwin Li

Best Animated Short

"Feral," Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
"Get a Horse!," Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim
"Mr. Hublot," Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares
"Possessions," Shuhei Morita
"Room on the Broom," Max Lang and Jan Lachauer

Best Documentary Short

"CaveDigger," Jeffrey Karoff
"Facing Fear," Jason Cohen
"Karama Has No Walls," Sara Ishaq
"The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life," Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall," Edgar Barens

Film Review -- Inside Llewyn Davis

Written and directed by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, the film stars Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, John Goodman, and Justin Timberlake. Llewyn Davis (Isaac) is a struggling folk musician in 1960s Greenwich Village. After the suicide of his singing partner, Llewyn struggles to establish himself as a solo act in a virtually un-marketable genre. Complicating things is his relationship with Jean (Mulligan), a friend's wife with whom he had an affair and possibly got pregnant. The film is essentially a character study of the protagonist -- someone who thinks of music as much more than a hobby, and thus struggles to be taken seriously -- and analyzes the sacrifices a musician must make for the sake of his art. The film is filled with literary and cultural metaphors, the most evident being the orange cat Llewyn rescues (the cutest part of the film, by the way). At first, I was disappointed in the film. Since it is so critically acclaimed, I expected a lot more. There was no concrete plot, and left me asking Why is all of this important? For what did I spend two hours watching you? After distancing myself from the film for a few days and reflecting upon it more carefully, I've come to appreciate its uniqueness. I see now that not having a complex plot allows for greater character development, and that's just what the Coen brothers are going for here: "a day in the life of." It is not one of the best films I've seen this year, but Inside Llewyn Davis is intelligent entertainment. 

Should you see it: Yes
Grade: B

My Definitive Ranking of 2014 Oscar Best Picture Nominees

Based upon the letter grades I've given the nine films vying for this year's top prize at the Oscars, here is my official ranking of the nominees:

1. 12 Years a Slave -- A+

2. Philomena -- A

2. Gravity -- A

4. Nebraska -- A-

5. Captain Phillips -- B+

5. Dallas Buyers Club -- B+

7. American Hustle -- B

8. Her -- C

9. The Wolf of Wall Street -- C-

Thoughts? I thought this was a pretty good year for films! 

Film Review -- The Wolf of Wall Street

Directed by Martin Scorsese, the film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Margot Robbie, and Jonah Hill. Based on a true story, the film describes the rise of stockbroker Jordan Belfort (DiCaprio) from young and ambitious to greedy, fraudulent and corrupt. In his entourage are his business partner, Donnie Azoff (Hill), and his wife, Naomi (Robbie). To be honest, I only saw two of the film's three hours. Not only was I tired, but I felt like I had seen enough. Perhaps it isn't very "professional" of an amateur film critic, but I justify this with part boredom, part disgust. Scorsese films are usually "excessive." Usually, it is often gratuitous violence, but this one, since there's no violence, is riddled with needless (and, frankly, borderline gross) sex. It gets tiresome to watch and really detracts from any positives one could take from the film. Wolf is also unapologetic in its depiction of Belfort's life. I understand that it is based on his autobiography, but at no point does the film attempt to be two-dimensional and portray the viewpoint of his victims, or in any way depict his actions in a negative light. At some point (and that point for me was two hours in, which is quite enough for a film like this; three hours is exaggerated, to say the least). I can appreciate, however, Scorsese's distinct style, which is apparent throughout the film. There is also some splendid acting, particularly from DiCaprio and Robbie. But it is not nearly enough, however, to overcome the film's many, many flaws.

Should you see it: Go ahead, but you've been warned
Grade: C-

FIlm Review -- Her

Written and directed by Spike Jonze, the film stars Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara, and Scarlett Johansson. In the not-so-distant future, Theodore Twombly (Phoenix) writes love letters for other people. He, however, is depressed and lonely after the demise of his marriage. He finds solace in his intelligent operating system, Samantha (voice of Johansson), but a human-operating system relationship proves more difficult than he imagined. I can see where Jonze was going with this concept: a commentary on our ever-increasing dependence on artificial intelligence, and a warning on what the future of human relationships might become. It had the potential to be an extremely relevant film. The execution, though, failed miserably. Instead of coming off as an intelligent, insightful piece, the film is just plain stupid. It is laugh-out-loud ridiculous at times, because nothing the characters do or say sounds genuine or even believable. Theodore comes off as a juvenile, immature man the audience shouldn't care about, and the film manages to be sexist even when the female lead isn't even real! I know I'm in the minority, but I was not impressed with this film. It is one of those that makes you feel like you've wasted two hours of your life.

Should you see it: At your own risk
Grade: C

Film Review -- Philomena

Directed by Stephen Frears, the film stars Judi Dench and Steve Coogan. Based on a true story, the film tells of down-on-his-luck journalist Martin Sixsmith (Coogan) who, when in between jobs, stumbles upon the story of a lifetime. He meets Philomena Lee (Dench), a "little old Irish lady," who was forced to give her son up for adoption in the 1950s. At the time, and out-of-wedlock baby was cause for disgrace, so she worked as a virtual slave at an abbey in order to "atone for her sins."On her son's fiftieth birthday, she decides to track him down. The quest takes Martin and Philomena to Washington, D.C., where she learns of her son's fate, with many shocking twists and turns along the way. The film is, at the same time, hilarious and heartbreaking. Often, performances that lean towards subtlety are overlooked in favor of the more flashy ones, so it is really wonderful to see Dench being honored for a performance that was nothing short of amazing. I could feel her joy and her pain simply by watching her. Coogan, who also co-wrote, is wonderful, too. His script is well-paced and well-written. I guess one could call it the surprise of awards season, but all recognition is deserved. This film works on almost all levels, and exceeded my expectations. 

Should you see it: Yes
Grade: A

Film Review -- Nebraska

Directed by Alexander Payne, the film stars Bruce Dern, June Squibb, and Will Forte. Woody Grant (Dern) is an aging, alcoholic, and stubborn man. He is convinced that he one a million dollars in a marketing sweepstakes. His son, David (Forte) is reluctant to drive him from Montana to Nebraska to claim the prize, knowing that it is definitely a scam. He gives in, however, and they set off on a road trip to Lincoln Along the way, wife and mother Kate (Squibb) joins them, and they stop at Woody's hometown, where they visit old relatives and friends. This film, you could say, is much more about the "journey" than the "destination." It closely examines the strained relationships between father and son and husband and wife. Does it sound dull? Well, its not. In fact, the simplicity of the film is what makes it great. Shot in black and white, and slowly but masterfully paced by Payne, the film exemplifies the power of a good dialogue and a good story. The writing is suberb; the dialogue is natural, poignant, and often times hilarious.The trio of protagonists all give wonderful performances (Dern and Squibb earned Oscar nominations). Payne has developed a trademark of exploring human relationships in offbeat settings, and Nebraska surely deserves to rank among his best films.

Should you see it: Yes
Grade: A-