My 2013 Academy Awards Predictions and Commentary!

The Oscars are almost here! One of my favorite nights of the year is FINALLY arriving, and I can't help but join the millions of people trying to predict this year's winners. If anyone is participating in an Oscar pool, look no further for some inspiration! After the ceremony, I will update the list with the winners and see how many categories I correctly predicted!


** UPDATE ** Winners are in red. 

Best Picture

"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Amour"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Winner: Argo

Possibility: Lincoln

After Ben Affleck was inexplicably snubbed of a Best Director nomination, I thought that Lincoln was poised to win the top prize behind its director Steven Spielberg, But that was before all of the other awards shows. Argo seemed to sweep every one of them, and is now firmly on track to become just the fifth film in Oscar history to win Best Picture without a nomination for its director. On the other hand, Lincoln could pull off an upset, and it would be deserving as well. To me, nothing screams "Academy bait" more than a film about America's greatest president directed by the adored Steven Spielberg and starring gold mine Daniel-Day Lewis.

Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis

Possibility: None

This has been Day-Lewis's category from the beginning, and his uncanny portrayal of the 16th President makes him a shoo-in for his third Leading Actor Oscar. Even more incredible is that he also happens to completely deserve this one.

Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis - "Beasts of Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence

Possibility: Emmanuelle Riva

This has been a tough category to predict all season. Chastain was the early frontrunner, but the controversy around ZDT''s appartently pro-torture stance has all but eliminated her chances of winning. Jennifer Lawrence won a Golden Globe and a SAG Award, a pretty solid indicator of Oscar gold, and she is currently the frontrunner. However, I can't help but feel that BAFTA winner Riva has a great chance of winning this award. It would be an opportunity for the Academy to honor the veteran actress on her 86th birthday. Plus, the Academy's average age is way up there, so they might be drawn to a performance like Riva's more than one like Lawrence's. I'm personally rooting for Riva, but realistically expecting Lawrence.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"

Winner: Christoph Waltz

(Strong) Possibility: Tommy Lee Jones

Hands-down the hardest acting category to call. The awards shows have been all over the place: Waltz won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, Jones won the SAG, Hoffman won the Critic's Choice. I'm going with Waltz purely because he seems to have last-minute momentum. His performance in Django is undoubtedly great, but he is practically in the entire film, so its almost not fair to the likes of Jones and De Niro, who have considerably less screen time. I loved Jones's performance, and Hoffman's performance was fantastic, too (he was the early frontrunner, but has since run out of steam). The Academy loves Waltz but he won just three years ago, for a similar performance in a film by the same director. Jones is part of a highly-lauded, much more Academy-friendly film, so any of these two men could win it tonight.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams - "The Master"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Jackie Weaver - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Winner: Anne Hathaway

Possibility: None

This has been Hathaway's category from the beginning, and expect no other actress walking up to the stage to accept her award tonight. She delivered a short but very powerful performance as factory worker-turned-prostitute Fantine, and I think her win will be well deserved.

Animated Feature Film
"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"ParaNorman"
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"
"Wreck-It Ralph"

Winner: Brave

Possibility: Wreck-It Ralph

This is a battle between the Disney films. Pixar is almost unbeatable, so I'm going with the very charming Brave to take home the Oscar. It faces stiff competition, however, from the also-cute Ralph. I think that the majesty of the Scotland-set Brave will appeal more to Academy voters, though.

Directing
"Amour" - Michael Haneke
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" - Ang Lee
"Lincoln" - Steven Spielberg
"Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell

Winner: Steven Spielberg

Possibility: Ang Lee

Spielberg is the solid front-runner here, and I think that the Academy will choose to honor Lincoln with the Director trophy instead of the Picture one. Close behind is Lee, who filmed an "unfilmable' story, and did an outstanding job. I believe that the Academy will honor Spielberg with his third (only third?) Best Director Oscar, as Lincoln is along the lines of the films that have won Spielberg Oscars before, and perhaps its too soon to honor Lee with another Directing prize.

Writing - Original Screenplay
"Amour" - Michael Haneke
"Django Unchained" - Quentin Tarantino
"Flight" - John Gatins
"Moonrise Kingdom" - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
"Zero Dark Thirty" - Mark Boal

Winner: Quentin Tarantino

(Strong) Possibility: Mark Boal

This is also a tough race to call. Tarantino won a slew of precursor awards, including the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but Boal won the WGA Award. I think that, in the end, it will be Tarantino; he wins major points for originality. He was able to write a satire that was both wildly funny and strongly critical of Antebellum society. Boal, on the other hand, was able to accomplish something spectacular: write an incredibly intense and suspenseful film about a fairly recent event that everyone remembers and remembers the outcome. So who is it going to be? I'm giving the ever-so-slight edge to Tarantino, as perhaps the Academy might feel it too soon to give Mark Boal another Screenplay Oscar.And The 

Writing - Adapted Screenplay
"Argo" - Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" - David Magee
"Lincoln" - Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell

Winner: Chis Terrio

Possibility: Tony Kushner

The screenplay races are close this year. Here, Kushner had the early momentum for his impressive screenplay about the struggle to pass the 13th Amendment. However, Terrio has won most of the precursor awards, and he acheived a similar feat to Mark Boal: write a screenplay that is based on true events but still manages to be egde-of-your-seat suspenseful. I think he will ride Argo's momentum all the way to the podium.

Music - Original Song
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice," music and lyrics by J. Ralph
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from "Ted," music by Walter Murphy, lyrics by Seth MacFarlane
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi," music by Mychael Danna, lyrics by Bombay Jayashri
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall," music and lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
"Suddenly" from "Les Miserables," music by Claude-Michel Schönberg, lyrics by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Winner: "Skyfall"

(Distant) Possibility: "Suddenly"

Is there anything that Adele cannot do? When it comes to winning awards, the answer is "no," so look for her to be halfway to EGOT after tonight.

Foreign Language Film
"Amour" (Austria)
"Kon-Tiki" (Norway)
"No" (Chile)
"A Royal Affair" (Denmark)
"War Witch" (Canada)

Winner: Amour

Possibility: Who knows?

The Academy is notorious for surprises in this category. The incredible showing of Amour in the mainstream categories makes the film's win here almost a sure thing. It also won pretty much all of the precursor awards. With this category and the Academy you just never know though, so while you mark Amour on your ballots with confidence, don't be chin-on-floor flabbergasted if some other film winds up accepting the prize.

Cinematography
"Anna Karenina"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"

Winner: Life of Pi

Possibility: Lincoln, Skyfall

I think Pi is a safe bet here. The film is visually stunning, and I believe that perfect simplicity will win it for the film.

Costume Design
"Anna Karenina""Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Mirror Mirror"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Winner: Anna Karenina

Possibility: Lincoln, Les Miserables

The two Snow White films will probably cancel each other out, and this category tends to go to the pouffiest and fluffiest dresses, so look for period drama Anna to pull out the win.

Documentary - Feature
"5 Broken Cameras"
"The Gatekeepers"
"How to Survive a Plague"
"The Invisible War"
"Searching for Sugar Man"

Winner: Searching for Sugar Man

Possibility: How to Survive a Plague

Sugar Man was not only an outstanding documentary, but it was also one of my favorite films of the year. I now have Rodriguez's music on repeat on my iPhone. This great film will almost certainly walk home with the prize tonight.

Documentary - Short
"Inocente"
"Kings Point"
"Mondays at Racine"
"Open Heart"
"Redemption"

Winner: Open Heart

Possibility: Inocente

I haven't seen any of these, but from what I've heard, Open Heart has a pretty solid lead in this category. I read the heartwarming story of Inocente and that she'll be present at the ceremony, so it would also be nice to see Inocente win.

Film Editing
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Winner: Argo

Possibility: Zero Dark Thirty

Usually a good indicator of the Best Picture winner, I'm betting that Argo takes this one. However, both of these films are very deserving. They're impeccably edited, to the point where they're so incredibly suspenseful even though they're based on true events. The momentum is with Argo, but I'd be pleased if any of the two wins.

Makeup And Hairstyling
"Hitchcock"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Miserables"

Winner: Les Miserables

Possibility: The Hobbit

I think that the Academy will honor Les Mis here. While the work on The Hobbit is definitely stunning, the makeup of every Les Mis cast member was virtually perfect. 

Music - Original Score
"Anna Karenina"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"

Winner: Life of Pi

Possibility: Lincoln

Pi's score was absolutely beautiful, full of exotic tunes. Even though Lincoln soundtracked by the great John Williams, but I expect Mychal Danna to take this one.

Production Design
"Anna Karenina"

"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"

Winner: Les Miserables

Possibility: Anna Karenina

If Les Miserables failed at being a truly great film, one thing is clear -- it was visually stunning. I hope it takes home this award, its closest competition being period piece Anna.

Short Film - Animated
"Adam and Dog"
"Fresh Guacamole"
"Head over Heels"
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"
"Paperman"

Winner: Paperman

Possibility: Any of the others.

The only of these that I've seen was Maggie Simpson, but I've heard great things about Paperman, so that's where my money is.

Short Film - Live Action
"Asad"
"Buzkashi Boys"
"Curfew"
"Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)"
"Henry"

Winner: Curfew

Possibility: Any of the others.

Like the previous category, I haven't seen any of these, but I've heard great things about Curfew. Again, that's who I'm betting on.

Sound Editing
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Skyfall"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Winner: Skyfall

Possibility: Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi

Sound Editing refers to the process of adding sound effects in post-production. Usually, this award goes to the blockbuster with the loudest explosions. That's why my guess is Skyfall. But, if the Academy decides to venture away from the usual direction, it might choose to honor the perfectly understated and edited sound of ZDT or the pure lyricism of LoP.

Sound Mixing
"Argo"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"

Winner: Les Miserables

Possibility: Skyfall, Lincoln

Sound Mixing refers to the sounds recorded on set, so it is pretty hard to bet against Les Mis here. The actors unprecedentedly sung all of their songs live on set instead of lip-synching to pre-recorded tracks, so I cannot think of a film more tailor-made for this award. 

Visual Effects
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

"Life of Pi"
"Marvel's The Avengers"
"Prometheus"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Winner: Life of Pi

Possibility: The Hobbit

A 3-D CGI tiger. Enough said.