What do the SAGs mean for the Oscars?

On Sunday night, as the winners were being revealed at the 18th annual SAG Awards, I couldn't help thinking about Oscar night a month later, and if the outcomes would be different or not. So just how good of Oscar indicators are the SAGs?


Best Actor: Jean Dujardin
Dujardin entered the evening a presumed dark-horse. Having won the Golden Globe for Best Actor: Musical or Comedy, most expected the SAG recipient to be the Golden Globe Best Actor in a Drama, George Clooney. But the most welcome surprise of the evening was watching Dujardin go from being underdog to frontrunner in a matter of seconds. More often than not, the SAG winner also becomes the Oscar winner, so Dujardin suddenly became the one to beat.


Best Actress: Viola Davis
By now, the Best Actress race has come down to two women: Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Viola won the Critics Choice and Meryl won the Golden Globe. But, as usual, the Critics were better indicators than the HFPA, and Davis took home the SAG. This also means that she will most likely take home the Oscar now. Although Streep always has a chance, it is Viola's to win.


Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Davis's costar has won all of the major awards thus far, including the SAG on Sunday. That makes it really hard to believe that anyone else will take home the gold on Oscar night. Don't bet against her.


Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
As with Spencer, Plummer has received every major award for his performance. He is almost certain to win the Oscar as well, after a long and impressive career. 


Best Cast: The Help
SAG's closest thing to a Best Picture award, the surprising win over supposed frontrunner The Artist ultimately did little to change the Best Picture race. To begin with, since Best Cast and Best Picture are different things, the former is generally not a solid indicator of the latter. Second, without nominations for Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing, The Help stands little chance against The Artist, The Descendants, and Hugo. Nevertheless, as one of my favorite films of the year, I was extremely happy with this win. The cast truly did a tremendous job, which can be observed in the acting accolades of two of its stars. What happens at the Academy Awards remains to be seen.